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Engine spec

Methodology

  • v4.9
  • 5-stage pipeline
  • n ≈ 100
  • isotonic calibration
  • walk-forward CV

π̂ = C ∘ M ∘ Φ // Φ : 𝔻 → ℝⁿ M : ℝⁿ → Δ³ C : Δ³ → Δ³

S.01S.02S.03S.04S.05S.06Φfeature𝔻 → ℝⁿMH.01H.02H.03CisotonicWDL1X2 prob.OUgoal dist.EV%value
Source
Φ · feature
M · ensemble
C · calibrator
Output

Data flows left to right. Six inputs enter the feature stage, get combined by an ensemble of three models, then calibrated before being emitted as match-day predictions (WDL, OU, EV).

ρ̂_ij(x_m) // re-estimated per match · per-match values private

F1F2F3F4F5F6F7F8F9F10F11F12F1F2F3F4F5F6F7F8F9F10F11F12
0.00.51.0

Each cell shows how strongly two features move together for a given match-up. The matrix is recomputed every match — feature weight is context-dependent.

v4.9OctoPick